Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.174683 1.236684 1.300864 1.372403 1.450085 1.532072 1.625389
2025-12-21 1.072790 1.159867 1.253763 1.363078 1.487533 1.625641 1.791650
2025-12-28 1.019504 1.122917 1.237696 1.375601 1.538237 1.725784 1.961171
2026-01-04 0.966554 1.079595 1.207843 1.365740 1.557210 1.784973 2.081267
2026-01-11 0.935825 1.058420 1.200283 1.378884 1.601143 1.873434 2.240193
2026-01-18 0.903892 1.033089 1.185108 1.380191 1.628492 1.940727 2.374736
2026-01-25 0.887136 1.024427 1.188653 1.403466 1.683196 2.044538 2.563725
2026-02-01 0.849426 0.988035 1.155789 1.378245 1.672773 2.060847 2.632493
2026-02-08 0.810262 0.948074 1.116465 1.342303 1.645464 2.051633 2.662786
2026-02-15 0.785261 0.924734 1.096936 1.330763 1.649482 2.084538 2.755145
2026-02-22 0.767519 0.909747 1.087220 1.331294 1.669294 2.139801 2.883963
2026-03-01 0.742600 0.884626 1.063303 1.311473 1.659440 2.151403 2.945773
2026-03-08 0.714340 0.855020 1.033387 1.283489 1.638402 2.147849 2.987460
2026-03-15 0.695473 0.837065 1.018232 1.275114 1.644878 2.185377 3.098614
2026-03-22 0.685507 0.830308 1.017525 1.286430 1.679983 2.267723 3.290899
2026-03-29 0.668675 0.813844 1.003046 1.277520 1.684457 2.302547 3.404654
2026-04-05 0.660428 0.808484 1.003317 1.289395 1.720306 2.388659 3.616897
2026-04-12 0.648912 0.798303 0.996512 1.290575 1.739622 2.448981 3.788097
2026-04-19 0.644824 0.797990 1.003230 1.311587 1.790456 2.564382 4.076075
2026-04-26 0.626388 0.777513 0.981045 1.288818 1.770956 2.559506 4.127913
2026-05-03 0.605612 0.753336 0.953004 1.256332 1.734484 2.523274 4.113018
2026-05-10 0.592878 0.739975 0.939922 1.245893 1.733008 2.547692 4.224961
2026-05-17 0.584187 0.731991 0.934231 1.246373 1.749170 2.603992 4.409929